Where is the problem with Nepal in this crisis?
Nepal published a new country map in May 2020, leading to a new dispute with India. The subject of contention is the Kalapani-Limpiadhura-Lipulekh junction between Nepal-India and China (Tibet). Located on the banks of the Kali River at an altitude of 3600 m, the Kalapani region is on the eastern border of the Indian state of Uttarakhand and in the state of Sudurpashchim Pradesh in western Nepal. Both sides claim that the region subject to contention is part of their country’s territory, which India included in its map published in November 2019. On May 8, 2020, the dispute between the two sides was fueled when India announced that it had opened an 80 km road linking Uttarakhand with Lipulekh on the border of Tibet, passing through the disputed territory. While the region is of strategic importance for India and Nepal, the issue is complicated by the disagreement over historical cartographic evidence that both sides claim to be the most accurate. A border dispute between the two powers arose as a result of the British getting stronger in the Indian subcontinent and expanding its territories northwards in the 19th century and the period reaching the border of the Kingdom of Nepal. Since it prevented it from trading with Tibet, the British declared war on Nepal on 1 November 1814, occupied the Nepalese lands of Garhwal and Kumaon in 1815, and the war ended with the signing of the Sugauli Treaty a year later. According to the agreement made with the British, the Kali River was determined as the western border of Nepal, which has been valid until today. However, the controversy over whether the land constituting Kalapani-Limpiadhura-Lipulekh is part of present-day India or Nepal is the lack of clear consensus on the exact location of the Kali River.
Interestingly, the current crisis with Nepal and China has recurred simultaneously. In this respect, while the new map of Nepal draws a different portrait, it is also thought that the Nepal government may have taken such a step due to the internal political turmoil it is in. Because the cracks within the government party, the Communist Party, also affect India. It is seen that the ongoing conflict in Nepal’s ruling coalition is operating in favor of China. Nepal’s publication of a revised map is seen as both Nepal’s Prime Minister Khadga Prasad Sharma Oli’s need to gain superiority in the fighting coalition and following China’s instructions. Then, it is no secret that a few days before the important meeting of the Nepal Communist Party, Chinese Ambassador Hou Yanqi held a series of meetings with his senior leaders.
In his speech in parliament, Oli promised to reclaim the region of Kalapani-Limpiyadhura-Lipulekh “at all costs”, which is part of the 1,800 km border shared by India and Nepal. In 2015, India and China decided to use the Lipulek crossing for trade, which is currently being discussed by India and Nepal. In response, Nepal has raised objections on this issue, stating that India has done little to address its concerns. And India’s big-brother attitude towards Nepal has also led Katmandhu to China. In 2015, the protest of Nepal’s constitutional amendment by India with certain sanctions was one of the reasons that pushed Nepal to China. Precisely upon these emotions, Nepal described Covid-19 as the “Indian virus”, said that the Indian virus has become more deadly than the Chinese virus, and that the lions on the national Sathamev Jayate (Oli said this as Singham Jayate) emblem represent India’s hegemonic designs. As a result India has pushed its closest neighbor, both geographically and culturally, into the lap of its rival, China. In this framework, India should develop an effective neighbour policy.
Real Enemy Is Not Pakistan
Another issue is China’s close relationship with Pakistan. In fact, the announcement of the new project with Pakistan, which came in the middle of the conflict, made India quite uncomfortable. For the Diamer-Bhasha Dam Project, which was planned to be the world’s highest cylinder compact concrete dam, which was put forward in 1980 and approved by General Pervez Musharraf in 2006, the Pakistan Army has now signed a multi-billion dollar deal with China. It has been announced that the dam will be jointly built by the state-run China Power company with a 70% stake and the Frontier Works Organization (FWO), the commercial wing of the Pakistan Army with a 30% stake. Pakistan struggled to raise money from international institutions despite India’s opposition to build a mega dam along the Indus River. Both the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) distanced themselves from the project due to India’s opposition. The World Bank asked Pakistan to receive a document that India did not reject the project, and in 2016 ADB refused to fund the project due to the controversial nature of the region. Thereupon, the Supreme Court of Pakistan created a fund to collect donations for the Diamer-Bhasha and Mohmand dams in July 2018, and donations were collected specifically for the construction of these reservoirs on the Supreme Court’s website. Now, Pakistan’s 40-year-old Gilgit-Baltistan dam project seems to come true with the help of China. India reacted by saying that the construction projects carried out by Pakistan in the illegally occupied areas with the dam, which is planned to be completed in 2028, are “unsuitable”. Although India has expressed its current concerns to both countries, China said it was part of a “win-win” bilateral cooperation to promote the welfare of the local population as the reason for its involvement in the said project.
In addition, China and Pakistan are already building the $ 60 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which will connect both countries, and this project, announced in April 2015, is very unpleasant for India. Finally, in the second annual strategic dialogue held by the foreign ministers of China and Pakistan on 21 August, they discussed their close bilateral relations, the Kashmir issue, progress in CPEC and ways to improve the Afghan peace process. However, New Delhi expressed its discomfort due to the mention of Jammu and Kashmir, which India accepts as a domestic issue in the joint statements of China and Pakistan, and reiterated its concern about CPEC.
In April 2020, China announced that it is building a brand new high-altitude airport in Taxkorgan, a region that enters the Shaksgam Valley in Gilgit-Baltistan, which Pakistan gave to it in 1963 to strengthen CPEC. In addition, the announcement of the Kohala Project was a message from China to India via Pakistan. Interestingly, after Nepal, Pakistan published a new map on August 4 and included some Indian lands in its country map. In response to this step of Pakistan, China, using more general and soft expressions (declared India’s constitutional amendment unacceptable last year), declared that unilateral status quo changes are not legal, and that the two countries should overcome the differences through peaceful dialogue. Again, on August 23, 2020, a guided missile frigate, the largest warship China has ever sold to a foreign navy, was sold to Pakistan, which is touted as “an important milestone” for China’s military export industry. It must be realized that there is a Pakistan that is being strengthened by China against India and that the enemy that needs to be focused on is China, not Pakistan.
On the other hand, China strategically uses Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh cards with which it has relatively good relations with India. As of 1 July 2020, China has allowed 97% of Bangladesh’s exports to Beijing to enter the country duty-free and without quota. This decision was taken after a June phone call between Xi and Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. With this move, 8,256 Bangladesh origin products have benefited from duty-free access to Chinese markets. Also earlier this year, Bangladesh requested funding from China to develop nine new projects worth $ 6.4 billion, including a sea port, a bridge and high-tech parks. While China has long strengthened its ties with Bangladesh, one of the most important pillars of the BRI project, in the field of defense, it also carries out high-budget infrastructure projects in the country in the field of economy and energy.
Increasing its influence in the region, China urged Afghanistan, Nepal and Pakistan to establish “four-sided cooperation” in the online meeting it chaired on July 27 to overcome the Covid-19 crisis and continue to work on projects under the BRI, including CPEC. He called for Afghanistan and Nepal to be like Pakistan, four countries to be more active in Central Asia, and the necessary work should be done to ensure peace and increase cooperation in the region. As a result, the increasing Chinese influence in India’s neighbouring countries gives serious and strong messages about how India should direct its foreign policy.
World Reactions to the India-China Border Conflict
During the Indian-Chinese border conflict, India has received significant support from the world. It was quite clear that after India lost 20 soldiers, the condolences from countries such as the USA, Britain, France, Germany, Japan and the Maldives disturbed China. Because after this incident, China stated that “Galwan valley is located on the Chinese side of the Actual Control Line”. This rhetoric took India by surprise, because the Galwan Valley was always under India’s control and has not been found on China’s maps since 1962.
In the Indian-Chinese tension, although the US offered to be the mediator, neither country accepted it. At the same time Thom Tillis, a senior US senator, announced an 18-point plan to hold China responsible for the pandemic. The most important issue that Tillis attaches importance to is moving the production chain from China. In addition, Many serious measures are offered, such as encouraging Japan to rebuild its army, offering military equipment sales to Japan and South Korea, stopping China from stealing US technology, and providing incentives to American companies to regain technological advantage, banning Huawei, prohibiting WHO’s independence, uncovering China’s debt trap diplomacy targeting developing countries. The second important issue that stands out in Tillis’s proposals is the strengthening of military and strategic ties with India as well as Vietnam and Taiwan. The USA, not wanting to lose its influence in the Indo-Pacific to China, carried out joint military exercises with Japan despite the coronavirus. Because these two allies continue to follow China’s increasingly ambitious naval maneuvers in the East and South China seas in the midst of pandemic. While Modi’s silence towards China is criticized in this sense, Brahma Chellaney tweeted that, unlike joint US-Japan exercises, the pandemic led the Indian Army to cancel the annual Ladakh exercise to produce conditioned troop reserves and that Modi helped China’s secret interventions by imposing the world’s tightest lockdown.
Commenting on the current situation after the USA, Russia said that the two self-confident countries will find a way out of this situation through established diplomatic mechanisms and tools. On the other hand, Russia has been one of the countries that announced that it will provide weapons support to India during the India-China border conflict. Although Russian S-400 weapons will be delivered to India as in 2021, it has been announced that the country will be supplied with missiles and bombs due to the tension it has with China. In addition, India received military support from the USA, Russia, Israel and France.
After Russia, Germany has been one of the countries that brought India’s standoff with China on the agenda. Stating that Germany does not want to interfere directly with the current situation, Germany has called on both countries to ease the tension. Germany has been India’s strategic partner since 2001, and both sides organize Inter-Governmental Consultations (IGC) at the level of the head of government every two years. India is one of the distinguished countries where Germany has such a dialogue mechanism.
Another country that India was supported during the increasing tension with China was Australia. Australia was one of the countries that stated that they expected the two great powers in the Indo-Pacific to solve the existing problem bilaterally. In June 2020, India-Australia leaders organized an online summit. During the meeting, both leaders did not mention China, but expressed their opinion on the strengthening of the Indo-Pacific. In this respect, it has been stated that the democracies in the region are part of a wider strategy to counter China’s military and economic weight. In addition, it is stated that China is aggressive due to its activities in the South China Sea and Honkong. India and Australia have made an agreement to use each other’s military bases for logistical support. The treaty allows military ships and aircraft to refuel and access maintenance facilities. A similar agreement has been made with the USA.
India has had the opportunity to see the support of many countries, especially the West, due to the current crisis. In response to China’s concerns in line with its developing relations with the West before the crisis, India has stated that the country will continue to pursue an independent foreign policy and maintain its non-alignment, as in the past. Because India did not want to maintain close relations with the USA and other countries within the body of QUAD despite China and continued to maintain its historical non-alignment policy. However, this effort of India has been of no use in mitigating China’s aggression in the region. Therefore, India has chosen to concentrate more on its relations with ASEAN, QUAD and European countries without compromising its non-alignment policy. As a result, it can be said that India had the opportunity to review its foreign policy on the occasion of the current crisis.
Contribution of the Crisis to India
Although crises often have negative consequences for states, India’s border tension with China has presented the country with different perspectives in domestic and foreign policy (along with the current international situation). For example, India has decided to boycott Chinese products and practices, and in the face of this decision, Global Times, the most important Chinese news agency, stated that this practice of India did not work and, according to Chinese customs data, China’s exports to India increased from $ 4.78 billion in June to $ 5.6 billion in July. While the Indian media argued that this was not true, they showed that the embargoes imposed against the import of China under the Aatmanirbhar (self-reliant) economy package could bring new capabilities to the country. Because it is discussed that 327 products (mobile phone, telecom equipment, camera, solar panel, air conditioner, penicillin, etc.) that make up 3/4 of the import from China can be supplied as an alternative or produced within the country. Finally, Prime Minister Modi held a meeting on increasing toy production and stated that toys could be an excellent means of advancing the spirit of Ek Bharat, Shreshtha Bharat (One India Great India-The program announced by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on October 31, 2015, aimed at increasing interaction between people in different cultures living in different states and regions in India). In addition, Modi stated that India should use its great potential in the rapidly growing digital game field and lead the international digital game industry by developing games inspired by Indian culture and folk tales. In this sense, the current crisis with China has become an important catalyst for India to evaluate its own resources and seek different alternatives in economic terms.
In the field of foreign policy, India, which attaches great importance to its relations with its neighbors, has had the opportunity to see the impact of China on the region in the current crisis period. Especially after May 2020, China’s relations with Nepal, Pakistan and Bangladesh are an important signal for India. In this direction, it is an appropriate step to try to soften the bilateral relations, which are already strained due to Nepal’s publishing a new map. India and Nepal agreed on 17 August to accelerate bilateral projects, including infrastructure plans and cross-border rail links. This agreement came two days after the phone call between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Nepalese counterpart, KP Sharma Oli, in an attempt to ease tensions between the two countries. While it is hopeful that the tension that India and Nepal have experienced in the past months has started to ease, it is very worrying that Nepal has been occupied by expansionist China, part-by-part. Against China’s deepening proximity with Pakistan and increasing affinity with Bangladesh, India should follow an effective policy as soon as possible. Because, in order for India to continue its existence as a strong and effective country in the world after covid-19, it should take strong steps against China’s activity and influence in the region (especially in the areas where India’s historical, cultural and humanitarian ties are strong).
From a global point of view, it can be said that India has had the opportunity to take its relations with the West to the next level (such as participation in the G-7 organization). However, while the world is being frazzled with the Covid-19 pandemic, India, like many countries, is passing important tests both inside and outside the country. Not much, two years later, many things are still not clear for all countries preparing for the world after Covid-19. Therefore, the reason why India did not react strongly to China can be read as the uncertainty of the world that will take shape after Covid-19. In addition, mentioning Russia-China and India as new powers that will shape the world for the post-pandemic may be a strategic move in the background of New Delhi’s calmness and efforts to ease the current tension. Although it is not clear where India’s foreign policy will evolve in the future, for a strong India, the border conflict with China should be given opportunity, and India should take realistic and rapid steps in terms of self-reliant in many areas such as defense, trade, security, health and technology.